Taper Madness - Decision Making

Not surprisingly, this last week I have been in the throes of taper madness. Ah, the joys of second guessing all of your training and equipment selection. Obsessing about the weather, worrying about every taper tweak you muscles throw at you... :)

After hours of obsessing, I think I've settled a few things out.

Clothing:

The weather today is projected to be 43-51. 10% chance of rain. So... shorts, long sleeve shirt, hat, and my #3 pair of shoes. I considered going for the #2 pair with 480 miles on them because they're a lot more comfortable in the uppers, but I think I'll wear the #3 set instead, simply so I don't damage anything.

I've been debating the tights, and only plan to fall back on them if the wind is extreme or the weather is much cooler than predicted.

Hydration Belt:

I've debated the extra weight a lot, and I think, despite having the bottle fall out the last run, that I'll take the single bottle instead of none, or the double. The bottle gives me some freedom for hydration and fueling timing, and I've trained with it so it's not like I'm not used to it. If I have family spectators at the mile 16 mark, I may dump it there.

Ah, heck, who am I kidding. I'm not sold. I'm still considering getting an SPI belt or equivalent and wearing that instead...

Hydration and Fueling:

Same plan as last year. GU every 2.5 -3 miles, starting at 5 miles. nuun in my bottle, water at aid stations or on refill.

Pace:

And the item that has been chewing up the most of my stress... target speed/pace.

I've been training to McMillans target paces since RnR Seattle, which project to a 3:45 finish (8:36/mile). This is from both my half marathon, and 10K performances. I've actually been running faster than those paces in some case (which is probably bad, but what are you going to do?)

If you use Daniel's VDOT system, it predicts a 3:39:33 finish (8:22/mile). The upper end of my goal is a 4:00 finish (9:09/mile).

I'm pretty sure that I'm going to go for it, and shoot for 3:45. I think I'll try to keep the first 2-3 miles at ~8:40/mile. Once things settle out and I can get a better feel for pace and HR, I'll work my way up to as high as 8:22, trying to keep my HR <= 160 for the first 10 miles. I'll allow it to slip to 163 or so for the next 10 miles, and up to ~165 for the last 6.2.

The last 6.2 are always the challenge, and especially here on the Seattle course with some ugly hills from 21-23. We'll see. The fallback pace is around 9:00/mile. Or whatever it takes to finish.

I'm really not sure about this set of goals. There's been a pretty big lack of speed and tempo work for this training cycle. Long runs were oddly inconsistent, etc...

Any input would be appreciated. I've got 2 more days. :)