RnR Seattle Goals

I've been, thanks to the week of brain melting training I just finished, mostly able to not obsess about goals and taper madness. Now that I'm sitting in the airport trying to get caught up, with 12 hours or so to go till the race, I'm starting to get caught up.

Plane gets in at 10pm, then I'm headed to a HoJo's about a mile from the start to get what sleep I can, and I hope and pray they have their shit together when I get up and head over there at 5am-ish and I can pick up my packet at Customer Service as promised.

So despite the altitude and hills in Denver effing with my head, I think that I'm adequately recovered from the half, and think that the half might actually be an accurate indicator of my capabilities.

Below is a chart comparing the pacing of Seattle to the Beach To Chowder Half. Admittedly the half is a HALF, but I am obviously much stronger across a longer distance. And I think that might extend throuoght the whole marathon.

http://www.aaron-cunningham.com/marathon_comparison.JPG



The next image is a comparison using McMillan across a set of ranges. Bold are actual race/time trial results.
Last year I thought was capable of the 3:50ish finish my 10K time predicted. Obviously from the final result, not so much. If you look at the 2 mile time trial I did basically randomly, and the half, I seem to be much stronger and more consistent than last year. I would certainly hope so. If 2 18 miles, and 5 20 milers (3 in 56 mile weeks) don't do it, nothing will. :)

http://www.aaron-cunningham.com/mcmillan_comp.JPG


I'm pretty sure this means I'm going to be more capable into the longer distance. I've decided that my goal is going to be to shoot for the 3:50 goal time. I'll pace at 8:50ish (slightly less than 3:50 pace) until the half. I think that should map to between 153 or 155 heart-rate wise, and I've done at least 18 at that HR with no problems. At the half I'll formally reevaluate, and then again formally at 20 or so. If I fall apart, then I do, and we adjust as needed.

I paid money to do this, I'll be damned if I'm not going to go for this in a reasonable sane manner. I'm not throwing this all to the winds, but I'm not paying 100 bucks for a 143bpm (75%MHR) training run with a 4:30 finish as I interpreted Eric's advice to me (even if 143 is my supposed lactate threshold)(or I don't understand LT, which is entirely possible), when empirical evidence says I should be capable of better. If I'm not then I'll have learned a lot, and unless things go horribly pear-shaped, I'll still lop some time off my PR. :)

So; formally calling out my goals in order:

Finish
Beat current PR of 4:32:58
Finish at originally projected 4:15 or under
Break 4:00
Closer to 3:50 than 4:00

Let's do this thing!